US talent pipeline in “precarious position”, experts warn

The data from NAFSA and JB International tracks the economic impact of the 17% drop in new enrolments in the US this semester, which caused a 7% decline in total international student enrolments on US campuses, not including Optional Practical Training (OPT).  

As well as $1.1bn in lost revenue, declining enrolments are set to cost the US nearly 23,000 jobs, with NAFSA CEO Fanta Aw warning the pipeline of global talent in the US is in a “precarious position”. 

“If you exclude those international students who were engaged in post-graduation OPT last year – which, at 25%, is the largest share of total enrolment ever – and this fall, there are alarming declines that we ignore at our own peril.” 

“Other countries are creating effective incentives to capitalise on our mistakes,” warned Aw, urging the government to improve visa processing, and protect OPT and Duration of Status – both of which have come under scrutiny from the Trump administration.  

Any disruption to OPT participation would immediately and dramatically accelerate the decline already underway

Travis Ulrich, Terra Dotta

While IIE’s recent Fall Snapshot Survey revealed a 17% drop in new international enrolments, it’s important to note the decline exacerbated a downward trend that began prior to the surge in visa uncertainty and regulatory pressure under the Trump administration. 

The economic data showed international students in the US contributed just under $43bn to the economy and supported more than 355,000 jobs during the academic year 2024-25.  

This represents a 2% decline compared to the record-setting economic spending in 2023/24 and is the first decrease since the pandemic.  

“The economic impacts go beyond tuition and jobs,” Travis Ulrich, senior vice president at Terra Dotta, told The PIE News. 

“International students also fuel the local economies where they are enrolled and live – in the form of everyday expenses and supporting local businesses. In areas with high international enrolments, that’s a critical figure,” he said.  

The economic impact data takes into account recent enrolment figures from IIE, which revealed the rising proportion of OPT participants as a share of total international numbers, making up one in four students in 2024/25. 

Presenting the data, JB International CEO Jason Baumgartner predicted OPT could make up 29% of students this academic year, though levels will eventually contract due to the shrinking pipeline of new students, he said. 

As such, NAFSA deputy executive director Jill Allen Murray said OPT was masking the decline in new enrolments experienced across the country, with Ulrich calling the composition of the international student body “concerning”.  

“With federal proposals that could significantly restrict or even eliminate OPT, the US risks losing the very factor currently holding overall enrolment steady.  

“Any disruption to OPT participation would immediately and dramatically accelerate the decline already underway,” Ulrich said.  

The increased share of students pursuing OPT – up 14% this semester – also had a bearing on students’ economic contributions, reducing the amount of campus-based spending such as tuition, housing and dining. 

This explains why despite the growth in total international numbers, economic contributions started to decline from 2023/24 to 2024/25, explained Baumgartner.  

Meanwhile, graduate and non-degree enrolment declines – which fell by 12% and 16% respectively this fall – both cut into higher-spending populations that typically contribute more through tuition, living costs and accompanying dependants.  

Economic impact data is also at the mercy of the inflation rate of about 3%, with rising costs slightly softening the decline in overall economic impact, but not enough to make up for the drop in higher-spending graduate and non-degree populations. 

A 2% rise in undergraduate enrolment this fall also cushioned the losses since undergraduates receive much less institutional funding than graduate students – the increase may have been due to earlier student decisions and visa appointments occurring before the suspension of interviews this summer, NAFSA suggested.  

By state, California and New York both experienced losses of more than $150m, followed by Massachusetts and Texas missing out on $92m and $65m respectively. These were also the states that experienced the largest amount of economic activity. 

To address the declines, NAFSA is urging the administration to improve visa processing for international students and exempt them from the travel ban which prevents nationals from 19 countries from obtaining US study visas.  

Among other recommendations, the association has urged the government to protect F-1 access to OPT after recent threats from policymakers to rescind the program.  

It has also warned against ending the current Duration of Status policy which critics say would place “drastic and burdensome” restrictions on international students. 

Elsewhere, the research found economic contributions by international students at community colleges increased for the third year in a row, comprising $2.2bn.  

It follows a new report warning the US could face annual losses of up to $480bn over the next decade as the Trump administration’s exclusion of international students continues to erode the country’s STEM talent pool.  

The post US talent pipeline in “precarious position”, experts warn appeared first on The PIE News.