US colleges brace for international enrolment decline

Amid the unpredictability of Donald Trump’s second presidency, IIE’s 2025 Spring Snapshot has revealed an uncertain picture of international student enrolment for the coming academic year, with US institutions anticipating an end to the sustained growth of recent years 

While the preliminary data suggests enrolment figures are likely to fall, “it remains too early to determine the magnitude of potential declines”, wrote the report’s authors.  

International student applications for the year showed a near-even split: 32% of institutions saw increases, 32% remained flat, and 35% saw declines. 

This contrasts with the previous year when 53% of institutions reported a rise in applications and 30% said they had remained the same.  

While 60% expected international undergraduate enrolment to rise or stay steady, the picture was a near-even split for graduate enrolment, with half of institutions anticipating declines.  

Carried out from mid-May to early June, the survey comes at a turbulent time for US international education, rocked by a near month-long pause in new visa interviews and new social media vetting rules contributing to ongoing delays and cancellations.  

Meanwhile, reports of visa issuance this spring paint a gloomy picture, with May 2025 seeing a 22% drop in student visa issuance as compared to the previous year, according to State Department data. 

The declines are particularly concerning given the widely-reported on impending domestic “enrolment cliff”, with government figures showing undergraduate enrolment declining by more than two million between 2010 and 2022. 

Among institutions expecting international student declines, top concerns identified in IIE’s survey included application barriers (87%), students choosing other countries (71%), US port-of-entry issues (69%), and visa status uncertainty (68%). 

Nearly a quarter (23%) of institutions reported that students chose to leave the country after Trump’s mass revocation of students’ SEVIS status this spring, totalling 176 individuals.  

While significant, the report points out that this number represents just 0.1% of the international students at those responding institutions.  

It remains too early to determine the magnitude of potential declines

IIE

Despite the volatility, institutions are doubling down on international student recruitment, which was considered a priority by nearly 90% of respondents.  

Student support is also rising to meet the demands of the often-perplexing policy environment, with IIE’s research and learning lead, Julie Baer, highlighting that nearly all respondents (95%) indicated their institution provided multiple supports for students on campus.  

Specifically: “institutions noted providing advising sessions (92%), guidance on maintaining status (92%), and mental health resources (65%)”, Baer told The PIE News. 

Meanwhile, demand for study abroad remains high among US students, with 86% of institutions expecting it to stabilise or increase in the forthcoming academic year, building on sustained growth since the pandemic. 

Of those studying abroad, Europe remains the most popular destination with the UK, Italy and Spain coming out on top.  

Notably 78% of institutions indicated that they offered study abroad programs in Japan, and a robust 68% in South Korea, with the authors noting a shift in study abroad trends within the region, which, before the pandemic, was dominated by China. 

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