More declines loom in “seriously concerning” US visa trends

On top of the 22% decline in F-1 visa issuance, the data revealed a 13% year-over-year reduction in J-1 exchange visas issued by the US government this May.  

“There are definitely reasons to be seriously concerned,” said Zuzana Cepla Wootson, deputy director of federal policy at the Presidents’ Alliance, warning institutions: “the drop is real”.  

Stretching from May 27-June 26, the halting of new visa interviews came at “exactly the wrong time during peak visa season,” said Wootson, anticipating data to plummet further in June, which is typically the highest month of the year for visa issuance.  

The freeze, only impacting the final week of May, is unlikely to be the sole reason for the 22% decline, with Wootson highlighting the impact of SEVIS terminations, the travel ban, and the near month-long suspension of visa interviews.  

The policies, among other attacks on higher education, have “already derailed travel plans for thousands of international students and scholars” and caused a “chilling effect” among prospective students.  

Nearly one month since the freeze was lifted, students are still struggling to secure timely appointments, particularly from high-demand countries such as India, according to reports from the Alliance.  

The delays have been compounded by new rules around social media screening, which are causing more applications to go through administrative processing for additional review, explained Aaron Blumberg, partner at Fragomen immigration lawyers. 

While Blumberg was unaware of any cases where a student’s visa has been denied solely for their social media content, “consular officers generally do not provide detailed explanations for visa denials, making it difficult to assess the precise impact of a single factor like online presence,” he said.  

If things don’t move quickly, a lot of [students] won’t make it in time for the fall semester

Zuzana Cepla Wootson, Presidents’ Alliance

Depending on demand and staffing capacity, delays vary significantly across the globe, with US embassy websites in Japan and India still displaying a warning to students that they “cannot guarantee” that applicants will be able to schedule new appointments this summer.  

Individuals from Iran, Myanmar and Venezuela saw the most dramatic decline in visa issuance in May, falling by 65%, 64.5% and 46% respectively. All three nations were subsequently targeted by Donald Trump’s June 6 travel ban on 12 nations.  

In May 2024, over 250 Iranian students received visas to study in the US, compared to just 90 in the same period this year, with Iranian academics long having rallied against visa refusals they deem as discriminatory and politically motivated.  

While we won’t see the full picture of enrolment levels until September, “even if July showed some recovery, it’s unlikely to fully make up for the disruption”, said Wootson.  

Though visa issuance is useful in predicting trends, it doesn’t reflect existing student visa holders who remained in the US over the summer and don’t need a new visa to re-enter the country, said Rachel Banks, senior director for public policy and legislative strategy at NAFSA.

Given the mass termination of student SEVIS records this April causing widespread uncertainty about leaving the US, the cohort of student who remained in the country is likely to be higher than typical levels.  

And yet, according to over 90 anonymous submissions to NAFSA in June, 73% of institutions are anticipating a drop in international enrolments this fall, due to the impact of the visa suspension and enhanced vetting rules.  

Meanwhile, recent Studyportals data has shown interest in the US plummeting to its lowest point since the pandemic, with the destination losing its market share to the likes of the UK and Australia. 

“With classes starting in just over a month, there’s need for immediate action,” urged Wootson: “If things don’t move quickly, a lot of them won’t make it in time for the fall semester,” she added.  

The broader picture 

The 22% drop this May builds on earlier declines in US visa issuance, with new ApplyBoard data showing a 15% year-on-year fall in the first half of the fiscal year (October 2024 – March 2025).  

Notably, this period straddles both US administrations, with Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2025, marking the start of his second presidential term.  

“What surprised us most was the sharp 44% decline in F-1 visas issued to Indian students, given India has been the largest source market for the US in recent years,” ApplyBoard’s head of US, Lindsey Lopez, told The PIE News.  

Lopez said the downturn was more likely due to falling visa approval rates rather than declining interest, which is a trend witnessed by Indian students across other major Anglophone destinations, suggesting broader economic or policy-related factors are at play.  

Despite overall declines, visa issuance in H1 FY2025 was still above pre-pandemic levels, with the data showing an uptick in the diversity of students coming to the US. 

What surprised us most was the sharp 44% decline in F-1 visas issued to Indian students

Lindsey Lopez, ApplyBoard

Notably, Vietnam saw a 20% increase in visa issuance, becoming the third-largest US source country for this period, with demand rising in emerging markets such as Zimbabwe (+162%), Bangladesh (+20%) and Colombia (23%). 

Meanwhile, Chinese student numbers appeared to stabilise from October-March this year, though secretary of state Marco Rubio’s May announcement to “aggressively revoke” Chinese student visas is likely to dampen interest from this key source country. 

With seven of the US’s top eight student markets experiencing downturns (all but Vietnam), “engaging with emerging student populations is more important than ever,” advised Lopez, emphasising the need for data-driven analysis in the fast-evolving policy landscape.  

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