How Trump is reshaping global student mobility

Heightened uncertainty and political volatility in the US are causing students to apply to more global institutions, with the UK set to benefit, a webinar hosted by The PIE and Duolingo English Test heard on June 24.  

“No one is banking on the US as a destination,” said Rachit Agrawal, co-founder of Indian education consultant AdmitKard. 

“There used to be a time when people only talked about the US, now it is the US plus somewhere else, or somewhere else entirely,” he continued.  

Of the students Agrawal supports, demand for the US has declined by 40%, with interest set to plummet by more than 70% in 2025 if the trend continues. 

The policy environment – including widespread visa revocations, attacks on Harvard University, and a travel ban on 12 countries – is taking hold on enrolment levels for the incoming year, with speakers warning of longer-term damage to the overall perception of the US.  

“The US market was not particularly healthy before this assault,” said Anna Esaki-Smith, co-founder of Education Rethink research consultancy.  

Highlighting the domestic enrolment cliff and the growing need for institutions to justify the value of a college degree, Esaki-Smith outlined the particularly challenging environment for US institutions.

People say this is a moment for the UK, but it is also a moment for lots of others

Anna Esaki-Smith, Education Rethink

With recent Studyportals data showing interest in the US falling to its lowest point since mid-pandemic, students are applying to a wider range of global institutions to mitigate risks caused by Trump’s unpredictability.  

Among Chinese students, 72% of US college applicants are now applying to two countries and 36% are applying to three, said Junshi Zhao, China market development head at Duolingo English Test, highlighting the UK, Hong Kong and Singapore as the destinations benefitting.  

“Chinese families don’t want to take a bet and spend a whole chunk of money without knowing what’s going to happen, they would rather choose friendly destinations,” said Zhao, adding that the trust was “gone” between China and the US.  

With the number of internationally mobile students surpassing 6.9 million and set to rise further, ultimately: “There is still demand, and students will go where they feel welcome”, said Duolingo UK country director Michael Lynas. 

“People say this is a moment for the UK, but it is also a moment for lots of others,” added Eskai-Smith.  

“Students concerned about prestige will pivot to the UK, those more concerned about return on investment will go elsewhere,” she explained, suggesting that price sensitive students from Asia were likely to stay close to home, fuelling more intra-Asian mobility. 

At the same time, “Chinese students are still rankings driven”, said Zhao, advising UK institutions to lean into academic excellence and job prospects to appeal to them. 

In accordance with two recent student surveys, Agrawal said the UK had risen to the most popular destination among the Indian students he works with.  

However, notable variations exist between fields of study, with business and management students moving towards the UK and tech students pivoting to destinations such as Germany and Japan.  

During the webinar, Japan was spotlighted various times for its efforts to attract more international students, driven in part by the expansion of English-taught programs and the appeal of the country as a safe and welcoming study destination. 

While the Trump administration’s attacks have dominated the headlines in recent months, it is not the only study destination to experience political upheaval.  

During the first quarter of this year, Canadian study permits dropped to their lowest level since the pandemic, with diplomatic tensions between Canada and India further contributing to the rise of non-traditional study destinations outside the ‘big four’.  

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