China, India account for 60% of all year-on-year F-1 visa declines
With the four-week visa interview pause starting on May 27, along with SEVIS terminations, and travel bans impacting international students’ chances to study in the US, there was a near 22% drop in F-1 visa issuances in May 2025 compared to May 2024.
Nearly 60% of that decline was driven by falling numbers from India and China – the US’s largest sources of international students for nearly two decades – marking what is likely the most significant drop since the Covid-19 pandemic.
While in India, 6,984 F-1 visas were issued in May 2025 compared with 11,829 in May 2024, China saw 14,409 issued compared to 16,987, comprising drops of nearly 41% and 15.2% drops, respectively.
Though India overtook China for the first time in 15 years as the top source in the US, both countries together accounted for over 54% of all international students in 2023–24.
Over 330,000 Indian students were studying in the US, compared to approximately 275,000 from China, according to the most recent IIE Open Doors data for 2023–24, which includes international students on Optional Practical Training (OPT).
The massive year-on-year drop in May 2025 from the two Asian countries coincides with a recent ApplyBoard report showing that in H1 2025, F-1 visa issuances fell below 100,000 for the first time in four years.
While the number of F-1 visas issued to Indian students dropped by 44% in H1 2025 to 14,700, down from a peak of 30,854 in H1 2023, China saw a reduction from 14,709 study visas issued in H1 2024 to 11,167 in H1 2025, a nearly 24% decline.
My contacts in China tell me that they want to wait until January 2026 before recommending Chinese students begin their studies in the USA
John Wilson, Wilson International Student Elite Recruiting
“When assessing the current situation, it’s important to remember that the number of Chinese students in the US had already been declining pretty sharply in recent years,” Anna Esaki Smith, cofounder of research consultancy Education Rethink and author of Make College Your Superpower, told The PIE News.
“In 2023-2024 there were 277,398 Chinese students in the US, a four percent decline, and that compares with a peak of 372,532 Chinese students in 2019-2020. So, we’re talking a drop of over 100,000 students in four years.”
With cheaper tuition and greater familiarity in other destinations, including the special administrative region of Hong Kong and countries like Japan, combined with the political scenario in the US, China is no longer the “easy gold mine” of international education, as reported by The PIE News.
What began as a threat to ban Chinese study visas over national security concerns escalated when US secretary of state Marco Rubio vowed to “aggressively revoke visas” for Chinese students, particularly those linked to the Chinese Communist Party and individuals enrolled in sensitive fields.
Despite US President Donald Trump signalling a softer stance on allowing Chinese students to continue “using US universities and colleges”, perceived hostility has led China to urge its students to be cautious about studying in certain US states, where restrictions have been placed on some nationals.
“Certainly, there will be certain diehard students who have nurtured dreams of going to an Ivy League university or other selective school and will still head to the US, heightened scrutiny be damned,’ stated Smith.
“But the unwelcoming environment will undoubtedly dampen interest and simply intensify a downward trend that has already been set in motion. Sentiment generally leans towards an inevitable decline in Chinese students on US campuses come fall.”
According to Charles Sun, founder and managing director of China Education International, Chinese students “will watch Trump’s actions,” adding that many are no longer considering the US as their first choice for overseas study.
“In the past, students aiming for the US would apply only to American universities. But now, they apply to institutions in multiple countries or regions, some may choose the US, Hong Kong, and Australia, while others apply to the UK and Singapore,” stated Sun, adding that the Chinese government is also encouraging students to enrol in transnational education (TNE) programs within China.
Furthermore, data suggests that China’s undergraduate market is pivoting towards the UK, with a recent 10% increase in Chinese students applying for UG courses through the UCAS.
And yet, declining US interest may reflect a temporary approach among Chinese students and parents, who appear to be taking a wait and watch stance on how policies unfold in the country.
“My contacts in China tell me that they want to wait until January 2026 before recommending Chinese students begin their studies in the USA or seek to begin their studies online in China,” stated John Wilson of Wilson International Student Elite Recruiting, a Georgia-based organisation providing student recruitment services.
According to Wilson, “despite the economic, social, and cultural benefits that Chinese students bring to US higher education”, they are often viewed as “spies, intellectual property thieves, and visa violators linked to criminal elements”, by the “nativist” Trump administration.
“Respect is an important principle to all prospective students considering study in the USA, and above all with the Chinese. They are aware of news reports where international students are arrested, kidnapped off the streets by masked men, increasingly complicated SEVIS regulations, revocation of visas, and requirements to review personal social media accounts.”
Despite India continuing to lead in US study visa issuances in H1 2025, even with a 44% drop, some Indian education consultancies report 70–80% declines in outbound traffic, with students “refreshing their portal every day” in search of interview slots.
Just last month, the US embassy in India stated that it cannot guarantee interview slots this summer for student or exchange visitor visa applicants without existing appointments.
This comes amid heightened social media vetting and background checks of study visa applicants, prompting Indian students to be increasingly cautious.
In response, US university representatives in India are urging applicants to be fully transparent in their visa applications, citing cases where incomplete disclosure of social media activity or US-based relatives has led to visa complications and delays.
While Indian students are rethinking plans to study in the US due to visa concerns and surveillance fears, those admitted to the coveted, yet increasingly scrutinised, Ivy Leagues are being advised by consultants to return home after completing their studies.
“There aren’t enough jobs in the US, and my usual advice is for students at places like Columbia or Harvard to return to India after completing their studies,” said veteran Mumbai-based consultant Viral Doshi.
“There are plenty of opportunities [in India] now, whether it’s pursuing further education, starting a business, or joining a startup, instead of staying on to work abroad.”
Vinita Desai, senior adviser for recruiting strategies and partnerships at Lehigh University, believes many private and mid-sized public and research universities in the US remain confident in their India strategy.
“In response to the evolving challenges, US universities with an active presence in India are implementing refreshed strategic plans focused on repositioning their brand and highlighting distinctive strengths to engage Indian students more effectively,” stated Desai.
“Indian students continue to view the U.S. as a premier destination for innovation, research, and career advancement. The current slowdown appears cyclical, and we anticipate interest to rebound as policy clarity improves.”
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