Canada “won’t come close” to reduced 2026 cap, sector warns

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Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) yesterday announced a further 7% reduction to its study permit target next year, setting a total study permit issuance goal of 408,000 in 2026.

In the November 25 release, IRCC said the study permit cap was “an effective tool in slowing the growth of Canada’s temporary population”, highlighting the drop in study permit holders from over one million in January 2024 to 725,000 in September 2025.

Of next year’s 408,000 total, the 2026 cap includes 155,000 new arrivals and 253,000 extensions for current students – in line with the current reality as extensions are on pace to account for 64% of postsecondary study visa issuances this year, according to ApplyBoard.

Stakeholders have said the target was not surprising given the government’s goal of reducing overall temporary residents to below 5% of Canada’s population by the end of 2027.

IRCC highlighted the 408,000 cap was 7% lower than the 2025 issuance target of 437,000 and 16% lower than the 2024 issuance goal of 485,000, but with both targets having been missed, stakeholders don’t expect the lower cap to materially shift the landscape.

“The headlines sound dramatic, but operationally, institutions have already been functioning under lower volumes,” Saurabh Malhotra CEO of StudentDirect told The PIE News.

After nearly two years of federal policy changes, Canadian study visa issuance is set to fall by 54% in 2025. Given this context, stakeholders have said media reports of further caps are leading to confusion among prospective and current international students.

“What’s concerning is that we continue to focus on caps rather than on building a coherent, evidence-based international education system,” Vinitha Gengatharan, senior international officer at Simon Fraser University told The PIE.

“More than demand, the real issue is that our system is constrained by processing delays and approval outcomes” – which were the primary reasons for the drastic shortfall in study permits issued this year, said Gengatharan.

More than demand, the real issue is that our system is constrained by processing delays and approval outcomes
Vinitha Gengatharan, Simon Fraser University

What’s more, ApplyBoard CEO Meti Basiri warned that a cap of 408,000, combined with the much lower intake target for newly arriving students – 155,000 – “raises real questions about Canada’s ability to attract and retain global talent we will need in the years ahead”.

“While we anticipated some level of continued restraint, the scale of this reduction underscores a growing gap between short-term population management and long-term economic planning,” he said.

Crucially, master’s and doctoral students at public institutions will be exempt from Provincial and Territorial Attestation Letter (PAL/TAL) requirements from January 1, 2026, as announced earlier this month in the government’s immigration plan.

In the November 25 release, the government said the exemption of graduate students was “a recognition of their unique contributions to Canada’s economic growth and innovation”, doubling down on its commitment to attracting international talent.

Additional groups exempt from the 2026 cap include K-12 students, certain government priority groups and vulnerable cohorts, and existing study permit holders applying for an extension at the same DLI and at the same level of study.

By cohort, the following number of study permits are expected to be issued next year:

Graduate students at public DLIs: 49,000

K-12: 115,000

Other exempt groups: 64,000

PAL and TAL required applicants: 180,000

Crucially, to meet the target of 180,000 PAL/TALs issued, IRCC said it will accept up to 309,670 applications from these cohorts, which assumes a 58% approval rate from application to issuance – far above the current approval rate which has fallen below 40%.

According to Basiri, the new study permit approval rate for non-exempt programs stands at 34% so far this year, making it “extremely challenging for institutions to meet their allocations”.

“This matters because most Canadian institutions rely on net-new international students, not extensions, to sustain enrolment and financial stability,” he explained, warning that if new approval rates continue, they will exacerbate financial pressures and hamper Canada’s long-term talent attraction goals.

Across the board, stakeholders have urged IRCC to strengthen new permit approval rates and streamline processing so students can feel confident applying again.

“Predictability is the post-secondary institution’s best ally,” Cambrian College director of international Imad Al-Sukkari said, calling on policymakers to use actual data points and conversions when setting up future caps.

“Misalignment between projected and actual conversions cause disruption and puts everyone involved (including learners) at a disadvantage”, particularly if it causes programs to be suspended later in the academic cycle, explained Al-Sukkari.

While the reduced target will not drastically change the current landscape, across the board stakeholders raised concerns about Canada’s long-term competitiveness.

Gengatharan warned there was a global “resource war” in which Canada’s competitiveness was at stake, pointing to other countries “expanding pathways, improving processing, assuring quality and ensuring opportunity”.

“International education remains one of Canada’s strongest talent, innovation, and diplomacy assets,” she added.

Upon announcing the 180,000 target, the government distributed PAL/TAL allocations across Canada’s provinces and territories based on their population.

It is now down to provincial governments to distribute their 2026 allocations to designated learning institutions (DLIs).

The following targets were allocated to each province and territory: