US to face $480bn yearly losses from shrinking STEM talent pool
The study, Brain Freeze, takes a long view of the ripple effects of declining international STEM enrolments in the US, which it predicts will damage the economy by $240-$480bn each year for the next decade.
“There is an explicit policy of this administration to exclude international students from the US, and that’s not well recognised by the American public,” said Michael Clemens, co-author of the report and economics professor at George Mason University.
Speaking on a NAFSA webinar last month, Clemens refuted the narrative peddled by Vice President JD Vance that there is a fixed number of university seats in the US and that any international student who comes into the country takes that seat from a domestic student.
“Our universities are places where people from abroad and people born here come together to create knowledge,” said Clemens, highlighting estimates that for every 10 international students who don’t come to the US, there are eight fewer slots for American students.
“There are many mechanisms for this, but the principle one is tuition dollars that international students bring with them in strengthening facilities, teaching capacity and human resources that create opportunities for native students,” he explained.
The report’s sobering predictions of up to $480bn in annual economic losses are based on what Clemens called a “conservative” estimate that Trump’s actions will lead to a sustained one third decline in international STEM graduates entering the US workforce.
Putting the figures in perspective, the economic losses per year amount to roughly the same size as the entire economies of South Carolina or Utah, said Clemens.
“It’s terribly sad and unnecessary and it’s directly relevant to every American,” he added.
As outlined in the report, international students make up roughly half of all STEM graduate enrolments and foreign-born workers account for nearly a third of the high-skill STEM workforce.
It points to recently proposed policies – including threats to rescind Optional Practical Training (OPT), potential time limits on student visas, and the proposed allocation of H-1B visas based on job level, with or without $100,000 entry fees – that will “sharply reduce the ability of the US to attract and retain international students”.
The authors estimate a resulting 6% reduction in the overall STEM workforce, rising to over 11% at the PhD level – losses that “would diminish the nation’s innovative capacity and, through well-documented productivity effects, reduce long-term GDP growth”.
Unveiling the report, Clemens highlighted new research revealing that 20% of all venture capital-backed startups in the US had been founded by immigrants, three-quarters of whom came to the country as international students.
There is an explicit policy of this administration to exclude international students from the US, and that’s not well recognised by the American public
Michael Clemens, George Mason University
When looking at patent creation, “international students are much more inventive than US natives are”, said Clemens.
While domestic STEM workers and foreign-born STEM workers produce an annual average of three and four patents respectively per 100 workers, foreign-born STEM workers who graduated from an American university produce an “exceptional” eight patents per hundred, he explained.
This amounts to 36% of all US patents coming from international student workers – meaning “every man, woman and child in the United States is experiencing more prosperity and more economic resilience because of these workers”, said Clemens.
What’s more, “beyond the general recognition that many highly educated immigrants increase innovation with their own new ideas, immigrant inventors cause their US-born colleagues to patent more new ideas,” stated the report.
“In other words, high-skill immigrants not only bring their own innovative talents but also make entire firms and even regions more innovative.”
While the direct economic benefit of international students contributing $40bn annually to the US economy is a well-known and much shared fact, the new report aims to raise awareness of the longer-term productivity gains among the American public.
For instance, in 2025, nearly half of Fortune 500 companies were founded by immigrants or their children, according to the American Immigration Council, though “few are aware of the direct connection to international students”, said Clemens.
The findings come alongside a recent study into the ripple effects of China’s college expansion on American universities revealing the inflow of Chinese students to the US has fuelled the growth of STEM master’s programs, attracted additional international and domestic students and stimulated local economies surrounding college towns.
Notwithstanding the warnings, the Trump administration has continued its wide-reaching assault on international higher education, with stakeholders closely observing the government’s next steps regarding its so-called Compact for Academic Excellence in Higher Education rolled out to all US colleges last month.
Speaking on the webinar, NAFSA CEO Fanta Aw welcomed the “small win” of learning F-1 students will be exempt from the new $100,000 H-1B visa fee – a sign that the government at least recognised the value that international students educated in the US can bring to the workforce.
But Aw said colleagues must be “strategic” in their advocacy, warning she was “under no illusion” that the administration’s current travel ban on 19 countries would be revisited by the administration anytime soon.
Despite unprecedented challenges, she acknowledged: “If nothing else, this has allowed for coalition building as I’ve never seen it in my time working in international education.”
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