US SEVIS data appears to contradict sector’s worst fears
Despite major visa challenges, international enrolments at US colleges grew by 0.8% in September 2025 compared to the previous year, according to the latest SEVIS data released by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).
“Be ready to see a story no one predicted,” said Chris Glass, director of the higher education program at Boston College, in his analysis of the data.
“It’s most likely welcome news, but we’re all scratching our heads a little bit given how we were all expecting such a significant decline,” Gerardo Blanco, academic director of the Centre for International Higher Education at Boston College told The PIE News.
Following months of policy challenges, including a near month-long visa suspension, a record 6,000 SEVIS revocations and travel bans impacting 19 nations, stakeholders widely anticipated NAFSA’s prediction of a 15% decline to come to fruition.
“I didn’t think NAFSA’s estimate was exaggerated in any way,” said Blanco. Glass agreed that the forecast seemed “rational” given the data emerging around plummeting student visa arrivals, which fell by nearly 30% in July and 20% in August, according to new figures from the International Trade Administration (ITA).
“There’s just no way to underplay how surprising these results are,” said Blanco, though the reality at an institutional level will only become clear upon publication of IIE’s Open Doors report, he noted, with the Fall Snapshot due in November.
This, together with State Department monthly visa issuance statistics – which are currently only up to date as of May – will be crucial to triangulate the data and see the full picture, said Glass.
Important questions also remain over the reliability of SEVIS data – which has been wrong in the past – as well as the extent to which Optional Practical Training (OPT) extensions masked declines in new enrolments.
There’s just no way to underplay how surprising these results are
Gerardo Blanco, Boston College
What’s more, NAFSA CEO Fanta Aw urged caution in drawing conclusions from what she called “premature data” seeing as several colleges are yet to record international enrolments on SEVIS and some F-1 students will likely transition to H-1B in October, producing a drop in the numbers.
However: “If we’re to take this data at face value, I think it shows that the system is far more resilient than the tumultuous headlines would suggest,” Glass told The PIE.
“This isn’t to say that next year or in the coming years, we won’t see a decline, but for this year, it’s very surprising,” added Blanco, noting the “extreme resilience” of US institutions.
And yet: “I hope the takeaway message is not that the US is invincible in that even hostile policies towards international students cannot change perceptions. I think the message is that perceptions take a long time to change,” he said.
It is important to note the role of OPT participants in the data, who are considered students in US datasets despite not being on campus or paying tuition, which Glass and Blanco agreed was likely to have somewhat obfuscated the data.
Participation in OPT has been on the rise since the introduction of a two-year STEM extension in 2016, becoming a major driver of the “record” international student levels in recent years and coming under significant scrutiny from the Trump administration.
“That being said, if we were expecting a 15% drop, we’re talking about roughly 100,000 students. I don’t think OPT accounts for all of them, so we are still seeing a significant drop that didn’t happen,” said Gerardo.
A turning point?
The 16% delta between expectations and what SEVIS indicates represents what Glass has called a “statistical cognitive dissonance”, urging colleagues to reflect on the new realities shaping international education in the US.
“I want to be clear: This shouldn’t be used to criticise NAFSA raising awareness among policy makers of the potential implications of the visa pause,” said Glass. “But it should invite some opportunities for reflection in the field.”
The growing influence of affordability – something Glass called “a long-ignored issue” – was particularly striking in the data, driving a “demographic rebalancing” of students across the states and shaping student decision-making.
The data revealed the proportion of those taking language training, master’s and bachelor’s degrees changed by a fraction of a percentage from 2024.
However, participation in associate degrees saw a 9.1% increase of nearly 5,500 students, signalling a rise in international students choosing the more affordable option of community colleges, which, some say has been traditionally under-reported.
Elsewhere, doctoral enrolment jumped 2.7%, defying expectations that NSF/NIH grant funding cuts would decimate graduate programs – “the most startling finding” according to Glass.
If we’re to take this data at face value, the system is far more resilient than the tumultuous headlines would suggest
Chris Glass, Boston College
What’s more, while “prohibitively expensive” traditional destinations like New York and California experienced modest declines, more affordable states with demographic and economic opportunities such as Indiana, Florida and Texas experienced notable increases.
The growing influence of affordability has not gone unnoticed by sector leaders, with Aw urging stakeholders at the ICEF London conference this month: “This is the time for change”.
“We need to figure out how to control for cost. Quality matters but if you cannot control for affordability that’s going to hurt you in the long run. This is an opportunity for a reset,” said Aw.
Amid unrivalled levels of sector mobilisation under the Trump administration, Blanco warned the unexpected SEVIS data could complicate advocacy, though he saw an opportunity in the moment.
“When the data doesn’t follow the story, the story must change,” said Blanco, arguing that stakeholders must move away from the economic argument for international students that was no longer sufficiently strong under a government “not necessarily following economics logic”.
Though the full data picture is yet to become clear, Glass said it was a moment to look at long-term strategies and macro trends, adding: “the arguments that resonate are shifting”.
“We all know that growth comes from engaging in the dissonance and trying to use it to update our assumptions to understand why our prediction mechanism was not what it was.
“Maybe it was OPT, and maybe that becomes the answer… But what we should do is say this is a moment to pause and to realise we need better data. And we need data that actually helps institutions make decisions.”
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