US international scholar pool set to shrink, experts warn
New data from the Institute for International Education (IIE) has shown the number of international scholars in the US increased by 3.5% in 2024/25, a modest rise compared to the 10% growth rate seen the previous year.
The increase builds on four years of growth, totalling more than 115,000 international scholars engaged in research, teaching and clinical work across US universities, though stakeholders have warned of growth being stymied by continuing federal policy volatility.
“What concerns us is the decline in the future pool, which is manifesting in our data and in application pools across the country,” Studyportals senior vice president, analytics and consulting, Andrew Ness, told The PIE News.
While IIE’s Open Doors data measures enrolled students and scholars – essentially those already “in flight” – Studyportals data captures intent 12-24 months ahead of enrolment, explained Ness.
He said the forecasts showed “considerable declines” in student interest as a result of uncertainty caused by the administration’s numerous policy changes, particularly surrounding Optional Practical Training and H-1B opportunities.
“Accordingly, the aggregate Open Doors numbers will show a decline as those in-flight students pass through and fewer international students begin their studies,” Ness predicted.
The data showed international scholar totals increasing in 31 US states, with the highest numbers found in California, Massachusetts, and New York, followed by Texas, which saw by far the largest year-on-year increase in overseas scholars.
However, recent state legislation banning H-1B hiring at public universities is likely to stymie growth in Texas, with stakeholders warning the move will diminish research output at state institutions and hamper Texas’ competitiveness in science, technology and engineering.
Finding those students – identifying them where they are, early enough to influence their choice — becomes more critical than ever
Andrew Ness, Studyportals
And while India surpassed China in 2023 as America’s largest sending country of international students, the report showed Chinese nationals still make up the largest cohort of overseas scholars in the US – comprising 22%, followed by India and South Korea making up 16% and 7% respectively.
But Chinese students and scholars have borne the brunt of the Trump administration’s attacks on higher education and research, with a federal report last year claiming China was exploiting US universities to “fuel its military and technological rise”.
Subsequently, several US institutions ended joint programs with Chinese institutions including Georgia Institute of Technology and the University of California, Berkeley, withdrawing from agreements with Tianjin University and Tsinghua University, respectively.
Meanwhile, the University of Michigan terminated a near-20-year partnership with Shanghai Jiao Tong University, and Harvard University’s alleged links to the Chinese Communist Party have been central to the administration’s attacks on the Ivy League institution.
Elsewhere, the data showed a marked 23% growth in Nepalese scholars coming to the US last year, as India, Egypt, Iran and Nigeria also recorded record high numbers.
Though growth from the latter two countries is set to fall, with Iran and Nigeria both targets of Trump’s travel ban on 39 countries, which prohibits the issuance of F and J visas used by students and scholars coming to the US.
Despite colossal challenges, Ness said it was “important for US institutions to recognise that while the aggregate numbers are declining, the pool is still robust”.
Despite colossal challenges and declining aggregate numbers, it was important for institutions to recognise the pool was still “robust”.
“But finding those students – identifying them where they are, early enough to influence their choice — becomes more critical than ever,” he warned.
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