UK higher education TNE enrolments close gap with onshore international students

A new report from Universities UK International (UUKi) shows that as of 2023/24, there were 653,570 students studying at UK institutions overseas – just over 50,000 less than the number of onshore international students recruited to the UK (704,405).

With UK international student recruitment dipping by 4.2% between 2022/23 and 2023/24 and UK TNE students in higher education growing by 7.8% in the same period, the number of students educated by UK institutions abroad could soon outnumber onshore international students recruited to the UK.

Presenting the report at the UUKi TNE conference this week, the organisation’s head of transnational education Griff Ryan said it could be difficult to predict long-term trends – particularly after a few years of unpredictability in the market.

“If you just project forward that same reduction rate for international students and growth for TNE students, that would mean that we would see TNE student numbers overtake international student numbers from the 2024/25 academic year,” Ryan noted. “Whether that is going to play out or not is potentially a different story. We all know what a rollercoaster it is to predict or forecast the number of international students from year to year, especially over the past few years of volatility”.

While he stressed that he was not forecasting trends, he noted that student visa numbers were a good indication of interest in studying in the UK. These hit a peak in 2022, plateaued in 2023 and dropped sharply in 2024, he said, suggesting that further dips might be on the horizon.

I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see an increasing number of TNE students reflected in the 2024/25 [HESA] data
_{^{Griff Ryan, UUKi}}

“Trying to predict the TNE numbers is a bit more tricky,” he warned. “We don’t have as helpful as a lead indicator as we do with the student visas.”

“However, given the level of sectoral interest and investment in TNE has certainly been building… I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see an increasing number of TNE students reflected in the 2024/25 [HESA] data,” he added.

The report also revealed that global demand for UK TNE provision is on the rise – with notable gains in student numbers over the past five years in Saudi Arabia (+142.2%), Sri Lanka (+104.2%) and the UAE (+88.1%).

Meanwhile, demand for UK TNE is surging across Asia, with demand over the past five years growing notably in Vietnam (+233.9%), Nepal (+107.5%), Pakistan (+103%) and India (78.1%).

The news comes in the same week as Lancaster University announced it is set to open new branch campus in India’s tech epicentre Bengaluru, following in the footsteps of several other high profile Indian TNE ventures from UK universities over the past year.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is fresh from a two-day trip to India to cement a trade deal between the two nations. During the visit, he brought with him a delegation of 13 UK university vice-chancellors in the delegation, with hopes that there will be new opportunities for UK institutions seeking TNE opportunities.

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