Slow decline ahead for US international enrolments

A new QS report forecasting global student flows to the US suggests international enrolments in the US will see more declines next year, before entering a period of “mild contraction”, decreasing by roughly 1% annually for the rest of the decade.  

“Following the 17% drop in new enrolments in 2026, QS expects significant contraction in overall enrolment in 2027 before the downturn bottoms out ahead of moderate recovery towards the end of the decade,” Ben Webb, executive director of North America for QS, told The PIE News 

The expected one percent decline follows years of flat growth. While total international numbers surpassed 1.1 million last year, excluding OPT participants from the data reveals a 4% undergraduate growth rate, while graduate numbers dipped by 3%.  

“Geopolitics, visa regimes, labour-market incentives and demographic pressures are driving a complex reshaping of the international education landscape,” said Webb, identifying access to visas and processing times as notable pain points.  

These have been evident in the US, where the state department’s near-month long suspension of study visa interviews last year caused global delays and cancelled appointments, and was a primary driver of this fall’s 17% decline in new enrolments.  

As such, Webb recognised the unpredictability of the current US policy landscape, advising institutions to plan for a range of scenarios while prioritising diversification and alignment with labour market needs.  

The report said demand from India – the US’s largest sending market – is expected to fall by 7% by 2030, with this cohort particularly vulnerable to changes in work-rights policies.  

Currently, over 30% of Indian students in the US are participating in Optional Practical Training (OPT) – with the government currently undertaking a “re-evaluation” of the program, amid widespread expectations of its curtailment or elimination.  

By contrast, lower demand from China is “likely durable” due to structural and political developments, with QS expecting more modest 4% annual declines among Chinese students.  

Despite the challenges, the report offers “bright spots” in Africa and Southeast Asia, pointing to fundamental changes in the global student pipeline.  

It’s clear [Africa] will not only drive student flows globally in the future, but will be producing some of the most promising, motivated prospective students

Ben Webb, QS

“Africa is one of the few world regions with a growing population of youth aged 10-14 over the next decade… it is clear the region will not only drive student flows globally in the future, but will be producing some of the most promising, motivated prospective students,” said Webb.  

He acknowledged the implementation of Trump’s travel ban had halted US study visa processing from many African countries including Nigeria, urging stakeholders that continued engagement in the region was “vital” in these periods.  

More broadly, Webb emphasised the importance of recruiting students from a broad range of countries – not only for offsetting any declines in major sources countries, but for the valuable contributions of these students on US campuses.  

Amid expected downward trends, the report highlighted the resilience and above average growth from smaller markets such as Nepal, Bangladesh and Vietnam, with the latter recording an 18% increase in student flows to the US last year.  

According to QS, the country’s expanding middle class, strong English-language preparation and preference for business and STEM fields were among the factors driving growth and making it one of US college’s most reliable medium-term markets.  

And while UK and Australian institutions have dominated recent headlines regarding TNE expansion, the report notes that the US remains the largest global TNE provider, with more than 700,000 students enrolled in US programs outside the country.  

East and Southeast Asia currently dominate US TNE activity, with South Korea, Singapore and Vietnam some of the most active markets, said Webb, expecting continued interest in these countries as US institutions increasingly explore other TNE models beyond traditional branch campuses.  

Meanwhile, Webb said Illinois Institute of Technology’s recently announced Mumbai campus showed “long-term intent” in India, emphasising the importance of sustained and strategic TNE commitments.  

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