Sector unmoved after Australia revises student risk ratings again
Under the new categorisation, which came into effect on January 8, Australia’s Department of Home Affairs (DHA) moved India to level 3 alongside Nepal, Bhutan, and Bangladesh, while Sri Lanka was reclassified to level 2 under the Simplified Student Visa Framework (SSVF).
The changes come just months after countries such as Bangladesh and Sri Lanka were classified as the lowest risk (level 1) markets, while India, Bhutan, and Nepal were considered moderate risk (level 2).
While the timing of the updated risk ratings — typically set in March and September — is unusual, the government has signalled its intent to crack down on misconduct in the sector. It comes amid assistant minister for international education Julian Hill’s recent calls to improve the “composition, distribution and integrity” of Australia’s student cohort, alongside his warnings about fake documents and profit-driven agents during his India visit.
Although Hill told a tertiary education conference last November that the DHA was closely scrutinising South Asian student applicants and their documentation, including English language proficiency, and would adjust risk ratings if issues emerged, stakeholders say the SSVF has largely run its course, with changes to country risk levels making little practical difference.
“SSVF was developed over a decade ago to give some applicants faster and easier processing. Today, regardless of an institution’s risk level, Home Affairs expects English language requirements to be met and financial evidence to be provided in all cases. Processing times no longer depend on whether an applicant is streamlined, but instead on where an institution sits on NOSC,” Ravi Lochan Singh, managing director, Global Reach, told The PIE News.
Introduced in 2016, the SSVF categorises countries and education providers by risk level, allowing students from low-risk markets applying to low-risk institutions to submit less documentation.
However, the framework is increasingly seen as less decisive in visa processing, with greater emphasis placed on New Overseas Student Commencements (NOSC) allocations under the government’s National Planning Level (NPL).
Set by the federal government based on provider performance and capacity, stakeholders say these allocations now influence how visa applications are prioritised as institutions approach their student caps.
Just in October last year, the federal government announced that NOSC allocations for many public universities would rise in 2026, with Group of Eight (Go8) universities seeing allocations increase by around 4%, after accounting for Adelaide University’s merger with the University of South Australia, compared with a roughly 14% rise for non-Go8 institutions.
The government already has access to vast datasets. AI should be used more effectively to analyse risk patterns at a granular level, rather than reinforcing regional stereotypes
Gurjeet Ahluwalia, Sophiya Consultants
According to Gurjeet Ahluwalia, CEO of Sophiya Consultants, since the requirements for students from AL2 and AL3 countries are largely similar, many Go8 and other Australian universities that continue to focus on India as a major source market are likely to be largely unaffected by the change.
“Many Go8 universities had already begun reducing their reliance on China and shifting focus toward markets like India. That strategy is unlikely to change simply because of a move from AL2 back to AL3,” noted Ahluwalia.
While reports of Australian universities curbing recruitment from North Indian states such as Punjab and Haryana have been widespread — with document fraud and agent misuse often cited as reasons for India’s fluctuating risk rating — Ahluwalia said the region is frequently disproportionately flagged, despite the government having the resources to address the issue more effectively.
“The government already has access to vast datasets. AI should be used more effectively to analyse risk patterns at a granular level, rather than reinforcing regional stereotypes,” said Ahluwalia.
Reports suggest that detecting financial fraud among students has become increasingly challenging, with some agents using “search fund” schemes in which money is temporarily deposited into a student’s account to make them appear financially eligible to apply for a visa, before being withdrawn later.
According to Ahluwalia, while most Indian students now demonstrate stronger financial profiles through tax compliance and GST-linked reporting, challenges like “search fund” schemes could be addressed if Australia adopted a system like Canada’s Guaranteed Investment Certificate (GIC), which requires students to deposit a fixed amount into a participating Canadian financial institution to cover a year’s living expenses as proof of funds.
“A system similar to Canada’s GIC policy, where students deposit funds directly into an approved account, would strengthen financial transparency,” stated Ahluwalia.
“It would also protect students from scams while giving authorities greater confidence in financial evidence.”
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