Paranoia and pre-emptive action: a difficult outlook for the US
Chicago in December was always going to be a tough gig, but The PIE Live North America descended on the third biggest city in the United States at perhaps one of the most difficult moments in international education history.
A long winter is coming and colleagues are trying to work out how to survive brutal policy headwinds and freezing public sentiment.
The conference was conspicuously quieter than in previous years, with the notable absence of Canadian colleagues, who largely continue to boycott US travel over tariffs and 51st state rhetoric.
US colleagues also told of deep budget cuts, travel chaos and increasingly difficult optics around supporting international recruitment within their own institutions.
Miriam Feldblum of the President’s Alliance used her opening keynote to give a rousing call to arms, saying it was “time to sound the fire alarm” and encouraging delegates to not only advocate for international student rights, but to litigate.
Any potential litigation however, would require a funding pot of between $50-500 million and it is unclear if any of the US for Success coalition and their respective donors are even able to assemble such a war chest.
The goal would be to prove that federal agencies failed to follow the Administrative Procedure Act and revoke any executive orders as having no legal standing – but some fear that even a fundraising call may have let the cat out of the bag and given opposition lawyers the opportunity to suit up.
For the average college international director however, the problems are more immediate.
The latest Open Doors data revealed a 17% drop in international student enrolments this fall, and global agent IDP showed survey data that suggested waning confidence in the US as a destination of quality and stability, with many hedging their bets with applications to multiple study destinations.
The pace of policy announcements has been like an unrelenting wrecking ball through admissions strategies. Students and staff are in a constant spin, barely being able to respond to one fire before another is lit through more travel bans, funding cuts and visa delays.
University presidents have been choosing what to say – and, crucially, what not to say – for the greater good of their staff and students. Many have been forced to accept deals against their own views, to ensure their continued funding and financial security of their institution.
The pace of policy announcements has been like an unrelenting wrecking ball through admissions strategies
One delegate described anti-immigration politics as like a ‘freight train’ across their state, and “the only thing to do is to get out of the way of a train” with the hope of surviving to fight another day.
Another told me of new state legislation that requires publicly funded institutions to declare all funds that are being sent overseas, making signing and working with recruitment agencies almost impossible.
Several speakers asked to vet questions in advance, fearing ‘political implications’ if their name became associated with any discussion on diversity or critical commentary on the government.
Jamie Beaton, CEO and founder of Crimson Education, tried to maintain that the US elite college system is gold-plated, with many Ivy League schools with continually falling admission rates below 7%.
This talent attraction, he argued, feeds the financial and tech sectors, with the US offering a uniquely entrepreneurial pathway from college to career for the world’s brightest and most affluent students.
However, the ongoing trade war with China threatens to hand this power to the East, as intra-Asian study increases, and Chinese universities steadily climb the global rankings. Many US universities reported taking preemptive compliance measures to cut off China further, alienating themselves from one of the largest source markets on the planet.
In a dystopian twist, The PIE Live ironically took place under the watchful shadow of Trump Towers in Chicago. As an outsider looking in, it was noticeable for the second year running that the President’s name was hardly ever spoken. Delegates often referred to ‘the current administration’ rather than naming he who must not be named.
With NAFSA scheduled to take place in Florida and AIRC taking place in Texas in 2026, you could can forgive the paranoid among us for imagining the worst when the international education sector comes to the red Republican heartlands.
Things could get even worse, and with OPT firmly on the chopping block, it looks likely to be a long winter ahead.
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