New international enrolments to fall far short of Canadian targets

Far fewer international students are projected to come to Canada this year, with study permit extensions set to account for 60% of total volumes, a new ApplyBoard report has found.  

“The significant rise in study permit extensions outpaced our initial estimations,” an ApplyBoard spokesperson told The PIE News, with the shifts having the potential to “jeopardise” Canada’s reputation as a top study abroad destination. 

This means that, while the government’s intended cap will nearly be met, the number of new international students coming to Canada is predicted to total just 124,000 – down by more than 50% from 2024.  

What’s more, the 60% figure relating to study permit extensions is triple the 20% the IRCC originally projected for extension-related cap allocations.  

Notably, new study permit approval rates declined to 33% over the first four months of 2025, as compared to last year’s approval rate of 48%, with the IRCC’s hike in proof of funds likely to have contributed to the significant decrease.  

As well signalling a decline in Canada’s reputation as a study destination, the dramatic fall in new international students risks creating significant gaps in critical, high demand industries, warned ApplyBoard.  

“Institutions will face continuing headwinds in achieving on-campus diversity and financial stability,” the spokesperson said, warning that domestic students were likely to be faced with higher tuition fees as a direct result of the decline.  

This year, the government’s caps were revised to include a 10% reduction and an integration of post-graduate study levels in the caps.  

New study permit submissions dropped by 30% in January to April 2025 compared to the previous year, and 70% compared with 2023, highlighting declining student interest caused by Canada’s caps and other policies including changes to PGWP eligibility.

Meanwhile, the number of domestic students enrolling in Canadian colleges has fallen by more than 5% over the past decade, with stakeholders warning that the reduced number of international students will not be enough to offset this decline.

Domestic students are also likely to be faced with higher tuition fees, as a direct result

ApplyBoard

ApplyBoard echoed sector concerns about the impact on Canadian communities and industries, highlighting the damage to Canadian innovation “at a time when AI is transforming the workforce and the role of post-secondary education is more critical than ever”. 

The Canadian government has vowed to reduce temporary resident volumes to 5% of Canada’s overall population by the end of 2027, though sector leaders claim policymakers “significantly underestimated” the impact of the caps, as targets continue not to be met.  

As per the latest government data, Canada’s population saw almost no increase in the first quarter of this year, with declining international students driving the largest reduction in temporary residents since the pandemic.  

ApplyBoard’s recent predictions follow a turbulent eighteen months for Canada’s international higher education sector, rocked by repeated study permit caps and work permit restrictions, with visa processing delays causing concern among stakeholders. 

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