Let my people go surfing – can Australia thrive in a managed era?

As delegates reflect on the vast array of speakers and insights at The PIE Live Asia Pacific last week, they will be left in no doubt that the Australian sector has entered a new era.

The ESOS (Education Services for Overseas Students) amendment Bill, which aims to strengthen international student visa rules in Australia, is currently moving through the Australian Parliament.

The latest version walks a fine line between purporting to value international students and at the same time limit their number in order to protect national interests.

This dichotomy is part of a new, highly regulated playing field that aims to sensibly manage the size and shape of the sector.

The initial blow out has not been pretty, with less than 235,000 study visas granted in 2024/25 – a figure lower than pre-pandemic levels and hitting the VET and ELICOS sectors the hardest.

The backdrop of national interests being prioritised include an 80% target for post-secondary education attainment for working-age Australians, effectively meaning a million more domestic students in the university sector by 2050.

Higher education reform will be hard to achieve without the AUD$50 billion net gain from international students that effectively subsidise domestic fees.

One cannot exist without the other, and it remains to be seen if tighter policy control will have unforeseen consequences later down the line.

The national level planning targets for international student commencements, essentially a de facto cap on the number of study visas issued, have now been increased to 295,000 international student places for 2026.

On one hand, the increase acknowledges what politicians have acknowledged as an “incredibly important export industry for Australia” – but on the other, it reinforces the idea of a cap on institutional autonomy and a level that is not likely to be reached in any case.

It feels hollow against the reality playing out.

While Australia once thrived in a flexible, innovative, market-led approach, the new reality is that it appears to be floundering under stricter controls. Integrity measures intended to clean up the system are threatening to drag parts of the sector under.

Increased visa fees, designed to position Australia as a ‘premium’ study destination that only genuine students can afford are, in reality, hampering diversity and pricing out short-stay study opportunities that are such an important part of the ecosystem.

The PIE understands the government is open to revising those visa fees for short stay, but only if an alternative funding source can be found to fill the hole in the budget that it would leave –a completely unrealistic scenario.

Proposed rules preventing the creation of new private institutions without two years domestic teaching first, will undoubtedly stifle innovation and prevent fresh competition in the market.

While Australia once thrived in a flexible, innovative, market-led approach, the new reality is that it appears to be floundering under stricter controls

Ministerial Direction 111 is creating an imbalance where metropolitan and high ranking institutions exceed their NOSC – their new overseas student commencements – while regional universities struggle to make their quota.

These all add up to a lack of confidence in the Australian market – and managed demand becomes mistaken for declining demand.

There is widespread optimism about the continuation of Jason Clare as minister for education, and the appointment of Julian Hill as assistant minister for international education as key advocates within the Albanese government, but this excitement is tempered by the acknowledgement that the ESOS bill is simply the least worst outcome.

“Let my people go surfing” is a reference to Yvon Chouinard’s philosophy that that people perform best when they are given autonomy to work with passion and trust, allowing them to self-regulate rather than be regulated as a way of stimulating more productivity.

Time will tell if rigid structures will bring the desired results for the Australian sector. Bad actors will always find a way around rules, but sadly fellow professionals in the sector many not be afforded the same time and luxury.

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