International student arrivals to the US fall by 19%
New federal data has revealed a 19% year-on-year decline in international students entering the US in August 2025, including a 45% drop from India, America’s largest sending country.
In real terms, 33,285 less Indian students arrived in the US this August compared to last, typically the highest month for travel before the start of the fall semester.
“It’s a toxic combination of both visa challenges and declining interest, but visa uncertainty is the primary driver,” Nikhil Jain, founder & CEO of ForeignAdmits Indian education consultancy told The PIE News.
Jain said he’d seen a 30% dip in US master’s applications, highlighting a lack of visa appointments following the US suspension of global visa interviews preventing students enrolling this semester.
After India, the arrivals figures from the US International Trade Administration (ITA), highlighted considerable declines from other major source countries, with China and South Korea seeing respective drops of 12% and 11%. The data does not include students arriving from Canada and Mexico.
The largest percentage decreases were for students coming from Iran (86%), Syria (63%) and Nigeria (48%), with the latter making up the seventh largest source country for the US.
By region, Africa recorded the largest drop of 32%, followed by 24% less students from Asia and 17% from the Middle East. Latin America saw a 9% decline, while Europe and Oceania remained just below last year’s levels.
Notably, the data does not distinguish between new student arrivals and existing students who need a visa to return to the US. Thereby, the 19% decline may in part reflect the reluctance of existing international students to leave the US over the summer, fearing they couldn’t return.
The issue isn’t about students doubting the quality of US education – it’s about their trust in America’s commitment to them
Nikhil Jain, ForeignAdmits
Jain’s reports of declining master’s applicants ring true with the results of a recent survey in which one in four US graduate schools said they experienced lower than average master’s acceptances this year, though the survey closed before many delayed students could accept offers.
The findings follow unprecedented political hostility towards international students from the Trump administration, the cumulative effect of which, “could be a generational inflection point – like how the post-9/11 visa restrictions created lasting behavioural changes”, said Jain.
“The issue isn’t about students doubting the quality of US education – it’s about their trust in America’s commitment to them,” he continued.
Such volatility has led to enhanced scrutiny of international student enrolments and exposed inadequacies in datasets the sector relies on.
As Boston College professor Chris Glass told The PIE: “This is a moment to pause and a moment to realise we need better data … We need data that’s actually going to help institutions make decisions.”
Typically, the US state department releases near real-time data on visa issuance to new students, but this has not been updated since before the visa suspension in May, when 22% fewer visas were issued.
Recently released SEVIS data showed an 0.8% rise in total international students this year, going against widely held expectations of a 15% decline.
Many have pointed to the fact that the SEVIS figures include OPT participants in student counts, which could be “overinflating” the data, though Glass has argued that, to mask enrolment declines of 10-15%, OPT would have to had grown by up to 400,000 in a single year – something he deemed “unlikely”.
While the exact data picture in the US is still emerging, reports from Indian education consultancies reinforce the declining arrivals data, with Namita Mehta, president of The Red Pen, highlighting a “noticeable decline in US applications across all levels of higher education.”
“If policy uncertainty persists, the US risks losing its status as the default first choice for Indian students,” Mehta told The PIE: “Graduate applications are down by about 19%, and interest in MBA programs has similarly fallen, with our data increasingly aligning with federal statistics.”
“Mid-tier US universities may feel the most significant impact, while elite institutions are likely to retain their appeal,” she continued, adding that students were still applying to their “dream” institutions but were showing less interest in “safety schools” amid ongoing visa uncertainty.
This was a trend also noted by Jain, observing that applications to elite Ivy Leagues remained stable while “public universities and smaller private colleges are bearing the brunt”.
Mid-tier US universities may feel the most significant impact, while elite institutions are likely to retain their appeal
Namita Mehta, The Red Pen
International students have been a primary target of Trump’s immigration crackdown, involving thousands of student visa revocations and attempts to deport those involved in pro-Palestinian speech, alongside a travel ban on 19 nations, among other hostile policies.
Perhaps most significantly, the administration’s suspension of new visa interviews for nearly a month this summer caused widespread global delays, preventing some students from travelling to the US in time for the fall semester.
This, combined with new social media screening, is contributing to delays and “adding to the visa woes of students and counsellors,” said Jain, reporting that some students had missed this year’s intake after waiting over a month for a visa following their interview.
“We’re seeing a fundamental recalibration. Students who would have only considered the US are now asking us about Germany, Ireland, even Singapore. The US has gone from ‘default choice’ to ‘one among many options’,” he said.
“Students are diversifying aggressively – they’re no longer putting all eggs in the US basket.”
A key driver of this diversification has been students prioritising destinations with clear post-study work rights, said Jain and Mehta, citing concerns about the future of OPT as well as recent changes to the H-1B skilled worker visa in the US, including a new visa fee of USD $100,000.
“It’s too early to draw firm conclusions, but clear trends are emerging. The concept of the ‘American Dream’ is losing ground among families, who now prioritise stability, safety, and peace of mind over brand prestige,” said Mehta.
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