Australia’s student commencements dip, but 2025 cap still within reach

Recent government reforms – including increased visa fees and changes to visa processing under Ministerial Direction 111 (MD 111) – are reshaping the market.

According to the Department of Education, international student commencements in the year to July 2025 were 16% lower than the same period in 2024, with English language colleges (ELICOS) down nearly 40%.

Sector leaders, particularly from the ELICOS sector have been vocal about the damage recent policy changes have had on businesses and individuals.

Closures, job losses, and dwindling interest have been blamed on the government’s decision to hike the student visa application fee to AUD $2,000. The move followed a 125% fee increase implemented just one year earlier, from $710 to $1,600.

Despite these declines, the federal education department’s International Education Providers – Progress Against 2025 Indicative Allocations report indicates that, as of September 12, Australia is on track to meet 102% of its 2025 cap for new commencements – a target set by the government under its National Planning Level (NPL) process, linked to MD 111.

Some stakeholders have voiced concerns that the 270,000 figure for 2025 may not be reached – with 257,276 applications lodged in 2024/25 and 234,040 visas granted.

But the department’s projections, which account for both students who have already commenced their studies in Australia and those approved to start by their providers, indicate that Australia could still meet or slightly exceed the government’s target.

Public universities, which collectively received an allocation of 145,300 new overseas student commencements (NOSCs) for 2025, are set to reach around 95% of their allocation, according to analysis by Studymove.

Other higher education providers (private universities and for non-university higher education providers), with a combined allocation of 31,000 NOSCs, are expected to surpass the target and reach 172% of their allocation.

By contrast, the vocational education and training (VET) sector, allocated 93,000 places, is projected to fill only 90% of its allocated NOSCs.

“Significant differences are also anticipated in the allocation levels reached by individual education providers. Currently, 28 public universities have reached 80% of their allocated NOSCs,” explained Keri Ramirez, managing director at Studymove.

At the start of the year, it was an expectation that Australia was not going to be able to reach the ‘cap’ level, but it seems that the early estimates where wrong
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“At the start of the year, it was an expectation that Australia was not going to be able to reach the ‘cap’ level, but it seems that the early estimates were wrong,” he continued.

In August 2025, the Australian government announced that its limit on international enrolments would rise from 270,000 student places to 295,000 in 2026.

Education minister Jason Clare has warned that future international enrolment targets will be more closely managed, insisting he makes no apologies for the government’s new managed approach.

Looking ahead, the minister said the newly launched Australian Tertiary Education Committee (ATEC), currently operating in an interim capacity, will work university by university to ensure institutions meet – but do not exceed – their 2027 student allocations.

“The ATEC team will be able to, in the compacts that they design with each university, help to make sure that universities meet but don’t exceed those numbers in 2027,” said Clare.

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