After the cap: the reality check for Canada’s international education sector

Since January 2024, it has been a challenge to write about Canada’s international education policy without watching the ground shift underfoot. Drafts start, stop, and are quickly outdated as new announcements, reversals, and reinterpretations emerge.

That pace of change is not just a frustration for those of us trying to navigate the process, it is itself the story. The rules of engagement for international students, institutions, and communities are being rewritten in real time, often faster than the sector can respond. By the time something is written, the policy may already have shifted, making even this version *subject to change.

That volatility for the sector in Canada is borne out in the latest IRCC data, highlighted over the past few months in ICEF Monitor articles and most recently last week, confirming what those in the sector, as well as policy experts have warned for months: the cap on international study permits has not simply slowed growth, it has triggered a dramatic contraction.

In 2024, nearly 100,000 fewer permits were issued than IRCC’s target and approval rates fell to 48%. The 2025 data show an even sharper decline: applications are down by half, approvals for new students have dropped to just over 30%, and only 31,580 new permits were approved in the first six months, leaving Canada on pace to meet just 20-30% of its annual cap.

Many of us have seen first-hand how sudden policy shifts disrupt multi-year recruitment plans and unsettle students and their families

Arrivals are also down nearly 70% year over year, and the overall numbers of international students in Canada has fallen by 23% since January 2024. The ripple effects are already being felt across campuses, communities, and the broader economy.

In my own work, both within institutions and through collaboration with colleagues across Canada, these impacts are not abstract statistics. They are daily realities. Many of us have seen first-hand how sudden policy shifts disrupt multi-year recruitment plans and unsettle students and their families, causing additional stress for frontline staff who go above and beyond to support students through these changes and force institutions into reactive measures that undermine long-term goals and planning.

Conversations with peers from across Canada reveal similar patterns. Institutions are scaling back the number of programs on offer, communities are feeling the loss, and talented students are choosing other destinations where pathways are clearer and timelines are more predictable.

A critical moment in a changing world

This discussion does not exist in a vacuum. We are in a period of intense geopolitical competition, where talent mobility, research collaboration, and global engagement are strategic assets. Canada’s peers and competitors are strengthening their global ties, investing in higher education, and positioning themselves as destinations of choice. At precisely the moment when we should be stepping up our game on all fronts internationally, sudden and poorly timed policy decisions risk sending the opposite message.

Instead of being treated as the strategic asset, it could be guided by thoughtful planning and strong oversight. But international education has been left exposed to reactive decision-making and political gamesmanship.

The result is a loss of momentum at precisely the moment when higher education and the economy are grappling with a perfect storm of challenges: chronic underfunding, housing shortages, shifting demographics, rapid changes in the global labour market, and the disruptive impact of technology and AI. All of this is unfolding in a volatile global environment marked by multiple layers of instability. These challenges demand sustained public and policy attention and none can be addressed in isolation.

Big challenges, misguided fixes

Few would dispute that change was overdue. Integrity concerns in some programs, uneven student supports, and mounting pressures on housing and infrastructure demanded attention. Yet these are symptoms of far deeper policy challenges in housing, infrastructure, and healthcare that have been building for decades challenges that require coordinated, long-term solutions well beyond the scope of international education alone.

What Canada needed was a course correction that was careful, targeted, and grounded in evidence, not a scramble of short-term, politically expedient fixes that risk casting international students as the scapegoat for problems that extend far beyond their presence.

Instead, the rollout of new measures has often resembled building a plane mid-flight, in stormy weather, with passengers onboard. Over the past 20 months, policies have been announced, revised, and at times reversed, sometimes without full data, often on compressed timelines, and with inconsistent communication across jurisdictions. Each change added turbulence. Provincial interpretations diverged, processes were rushed, and uncertainty deepened for students asked to make life-changing choices in the middle of it all.

The rollout of new measures has often resembled building a plane mid-flight, in stormy weather, with passengers onboard.

Perhaps most damaging was the one-size-fits-all approach, without utilizing data to pinpoint challenges. Institutions with strong oversight, robust retention, and comprehensive supports were treated the same as underregulated programs that had drawn concern for years. The result was a sledgehammer applied where a scalpel was required, with blunt measures that swept away nuance and overlooked real distinctions in the sector.

That damage cannot be undone, but the federal government can still help pick up the pieces: by working with provinces and territories to rebuild tailored solutions that reflect local context and capacity.

Recent hearings before the Standing Committee on Citizenship and Immigration (CIMM) underscored how much remains misunderstood in the system. The path forward now requires more than reaction, it calls for a coordinated strategy, with clear goals, defined parameters, and meaningful consultation with the institutions, provinces, and communities. In a competitive global environment, Canada cannot afford anything less.

Bureaucracy, backlogs, and bottlenecks

The Provincial Attestation Letter process is a prime example of reactive policymaking. Introduced with no lead time, it required provinces to design entirely new administrative systems almost overnight. While intended to ensure accountability and manage allocations, in practice it has created delays, inconsistent application, and uncertainty for both students and institutions.

These challenges are magnified by the decision to add new requirements to an immigration system already struggling with heavy backlogs. Study permit processing times in Canada of more than 200 days became the norm for much of this year.  Similar delays affect post-graduation work permits, permanent residency applications, and employer-driven skilled worker visas. In a globally competitive talent market, these delays do more than frustrate students and institutions. They send a signal to highly qualified individuals that Canada cannot offer a predictable path from study to work to settlement.

This is not simply an international student issue. It reflects a larger need for comprehensive immigration system reform. The solutions are straightforward to state but complex to implement. Canada needs greater transparency, improved service standards, and better alignment between immigration policy and current and emerging labour market needs at the regional level, not outdated or poorly defined historical priorities at the federal level.

Processing timelines must be dramatically reduced to save time and resources for students, employers, and government. Achieving this requires genuine engagement across sectors, including post-secondary institutions, employers, housing providers, local governments, and community organisations.

The impact on domestic learners and communities

The absence of international students is felt far beyond institutional finances. In smaller cities and rural regions, their enrolment keeps programs viable. When those students are no longer there, some programs fall below the threshold for sustainability. The result is closures that leave domestic learners without local study options, forcing some to relocate or abandon their studies altogether.

This has proven to be true in urban regions as well, where the loss of international enrolment can tip the balance for specialised or niche programs, reduce course offerings, and limit the diversity of educational opportunities available to all students.

The absence of international students is felt far beyond institutional finances

This reality challenges the persistent narrative that international students take away spots from domestic learners. In many cases, the opposite is true. Their presence sustains programs, preserves course diversity, and keeps opportunities available in communities that might otherwise lose them. The economic and cultural contributions of international students are also diminished when enrolment falls. The erosion of Brand Canada in the global education marketplace is not just a reputational issue. It has tangible consequences for the vitality of communities across the country.

Looking ahead

If Canada is to restore stability and credibility in international education, it must move beyond short-term fixes and knee-jerk reactions.

In my next article, I will look at examples from Germany’s strategic investment model, New Zealand’s managed growth plan, and British Columbia’s provincial approach. Together, these three cases offer a brief but valuable starting point for considering how Canada might begin shaping a coherent national strategy.

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